My Black jack code

Horse sense -- or common sense -- dictates that Street Sense should be the strong favorite that he is in Saturday's 132nd Preakness Stakes at Batimore's Pimlico Race Course.

Earlier this month, the Street Cry-Bedazzled colt became the first Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion ever to win the Kentucky Derby, opening leg of Thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown for 3-year-olds.

The consensus appears to be that Street Sense is so talented he stands a serious shot at becoming America's first Triple Crown champ in nearly three decades, though bettors continue to favor the "No" when asked if the horse will become the first to sweep all three legs since Steve Cauthen turned the trick aboard Affirmed in 1978.

Seventeen horses in the 28 intervening years since have won two of the three races, with 10 taking the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before losing in the longer, 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes.

Bernardini, last year's Preakness champ, skipped both the Derby and Belmont, while Derby winner Barbaro broke down at the start of the Preakness and later had to be euthanized.

The usual propositions, matchups and exotics are out there, but bettors shouldn't expect to stuff their pockets with greenbacks off the Preakness -- unless a long shot crashes into the Top 3.

If Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin finish one, two, three as they did in the Kentucky Derby on May 5 and with only nine horses expected at the starting gate as opposed to the 20 who raced at Churchill Downs, horseplayers would be lucky to collect a trifecta that paid 10 percent of the $440 that was returned on a winning Run for the Roses tri.

Also, with the trio of favorites all listed at 7/2 or less, a Bodog.com prop that asked if the winning mutuel payoff would be over or under $12.50 appears to be a steal on the under.

One Bodog.com prop that seems to already have been settled is the number of Preakness starters.

Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher's late decision to bring sixth-place Derby finisher Circular Quay back in the Preakness set the field at nine on Wednesday and brought to four the number of Run for the Roses entrants slated to travel the 1 3/16ths-mile distance at Pimlico.

While a scratch remains possible, those who wagered on exactly nine starters at 1/2 seemed likely to cash winning tickets; less than nine was 5/6 and more than nine was 2/1.

Pletcher also has Santa Anita Derby runnerup King of the Roxy entered.

Completing the field were Mint Slewlep, Frederico Tesio Stakes winner Xchanger, CP West and Derby Trial champion Flying First Class.

Street Sense was a 7/5 morning line favorite early Thursday, followed by Hard Spun at 5/2 and Curlin at 7/2.

Bodog.com had the three at 5/4, 5/2 and 7/2 respectively, while Pinnacle's prices were plus $1.56, plus $3.03 and plus $3.52.

BetUs.com's numbers were plus $1.40, plus $2.00 and plus $3.00.

Odds on long shots noticeably differed.

Mint Slewlep, who will break from the No. 1 slot, was plus $100.00 at Pinnacle, 40/1 at Bodog and plus $28.00 at BetUS.

BetUS also offers players the opportunity to wager on which horses will place and show.

Street Sense was minus $3.20 to run second and minus $10.00 to finish third, Hard Spun was minus $1.60 and minus $8.50 and Curlin was plus $1.10 and minus $2.00.

Bettors have at least a pair of time props from which to choose.

A Bodog prop asks whether the winning time will be over or under Bernardini's 1:54.65 clocking of a year ago.

BetUS asks if it will be over or under 115 seconds (1:55.00).

VIP.com lists a wide range of margin of victory props, ranging from a dead heat at 50/1 to the favored 1 to 2 3/4 lengths at 7/2.

Bodog asks simply if the margin of victory will be more or less than two lengths.

More than two lengths was a 2/3 choice, two lengths was 3/1 and less than two lengths was 5/6.

Saturday's Pimlico attendance was the focus of another Bodog.com proposition.

"Yes," turnout will exceed 117,000 and "No," it won't were both minus $1.20.

VIP.com asks directly if Street Sense will win the Preakness and Triple Crown.

"Yes" on the Preakness was minus $1.40 and "No" was minus $1.70.

"Yes" on the Triple Crown was plus $3.00 and "No" was minus $4.00.

Pinnacle posted a full roster of matchups, including one that had Street Sense at minus $1.17 versus both Hard Spun and Curlin at minus $1.01.

Street Sense was minus $2.25 against Curlin's plus $2.05 and minus $2.00 versus Hard Spun's plus $1.80.

Is it time to shovel dirt on them?

I know it's the first week in May, and I know the New York Yankees began the 2006 season 11-19 before rallying to their millionth consecutive AL East crown. But even the most rose-colored-glasses-wearing Yankee fan has to admit at this point that 2007 is shaping up a little different.

I mean, Mike Mussina and Chien-Ming Wang hurt their hamstrings the first week of the season and basically miss April. Mariano Rivera blows his first two save chances, and ends April with exactly one save. Kei Igawa is a disaster, and Carl Pavano is a wimp. Jeff Karstens gets drilled by a line drive against the Red Sox and fractures his leg. Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon can't stay healthy.

And now Philip Hughes, their bonus baby wunderkind who can't miss, gets called up to fill in for the decimated rotation, pitches over six innings of no-hit ball against Texas, and then pulls a hamstring. This rookie literally had to leave a no-hitter because he hurt himself, and now will miss more than a month with his own bad hammy.

Don't get me wrong: this is still an unbelievably fearsome lineup, the best in baseball. They're going to score an ungodly number of runs. But will the team be able to get anyone out? Do they really think this ragtag band of 80-year-olds and 25-year-olds with 80-year-old body parts is going to make it through a full year, or that the six-inning maestro Roger Clemens is going to cure all that ails them? The Hughes injury is especially brutal because this kid was the embodiment of hope. I know he'll be back at the All-Star Break at the latest, and that in the long term having the temptation of pitching Hughes all year removed is probably the best thing for the kid. But still, he's a walking metaphor.

Listen, New York won't finish last. I'm just no longer 100% convinced they're finishing first, either.

Which teams were you most impressed by in the NFL Draft this weekend? And who hurt themselves the most with how they picked?

BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com: The Browns passed on Brady Quinn in the #3 spot only to trade next year's pick to Dallas for the right to take Quinn at #22. This also saves the Browns $33 million in guarantees that Quinn would have been due. Joe Thomas was the best offensive lineman in the country and will provide top-notch blocking to Quinn and recently-acquired Jamal Lewis. The Raiders made a nice pick in the fourth round by selecting Michael Bush. Bush might be the steal of the draft if he adequately recovers from his broken leg. The Dolphins made a surprising move by selecting Ted Ginn Jr. Sure, he's an exciting player, but when they had so many more glaring needs it makes you wonder what some GMs are thinking. With all that said, the New England Patriots are the big winners so far in this year's off-season, simply based on the moves they made.

What do you think of Randy Moss going to the Patriots? Does this make New England an even stronger wager to head to the Super Bowl in 2008, or will Moss flame out?

BDB, BoDog.com: It goes without saying Randy Moss can be the best receiver in the game when he's motivated. Moss plays better when his team is winning, which is a catch-22 because his recent teams couldn't win unless he was playing well. This is the perfect situation for him to come back at re-establish himself as the league's best WR. It's unlikely that Belichick and Brady will take any sulking from Moss, and I predict we will see a Cory-Dillon-like turnaround in Moss's attitude, where Randy just comes to work and puts up big numbers. The change is already apparent, with Moss agreeing to renegotiate his contract to come to the Patriots. Hey, Tom Brady was one drive away from the Super Bowl last year and he did it without a 1,000-yard receiver. The Pats have bolstered their receiving crew to the point where Brady could and should have multiple 1,000-yarders in the 2007 season.

The first Saturday in May is approaching. Can you give us a quick rundown of your personal favorites for the Kentucky Derby?

BDB, BoDog.com: My personal favorite is Street Sense. I think this is the year where history is made with Street Sense winning both the Breeders Cup Juvenile back in November and the Kentucky Derby on May 5th. Although he came in second in the Blue Grass Stakes, this horse is worth his Eclipse Award. Curlin, most likely to go off as the post time favorite, is also among my top picks. He's the only horse who's currently unbeaten, but with only three lifetime starts, and no two-year-old races under his belt, I'm not totally convinced this horse can win the big race. I think Nobiz Like Shobiz has a chance if he can keep his cool. Although he had new equipment his last prep, he was able to pull out the win.

The Bulls sweeping the Heat out of the playoffs certainly caught me by surprise. Do you think Chicago is a better-than-even bet now to make it to the NBA Finals? How would they fare against the Pistons?

BDB, BoDog.com: The sweep was definitely unexpected, but the Bulls taking the series wasn't a huge surprise to me. Wade was less than extraordinary after returning from his shoulder injury. The Bulls are a good team and with their combination of shooters, Ben Wallace playing well inside and Luol Deng's coming-out party this year, they stand a better chance of beating the Pistons than their Eastern Conference counterparts. Coach Skiles has his team playing their best, and as a result they're definitely a good pick to come out of the East.

The Brewers are one of those teams one would call the exception to the rule. Despite a very modest payroll, Milwaukee showed in 2006 that they will be able to compete for the National League Central title. The Brewers ranked near the bottom of the NL in pitching, hitting, and defense last season due to some costly injuries yet they were able to finish a close fourth in the deep Central division. With the prospects of a solid starting rotation, and growing offensive threats in Bill Hall, Prince Fielder, and Ricky Weeks, this is a team which can give the Cubs and Cards a run for their money.

With Ben Sheets the Brewers have themselves a 20-win caliber pitcher, and with Chris Capuano they have one of the best young lefties in the game. Last season, he only tallied one victory in the second half which really cost this team to move up in the standings. Jeff Suppan comes over from the Cards landing the biggest contract in Brewers team history. He's not worth all those chips, but he will fill one more void in this staff. Dave Bush led the Brew Crew in wins last season, but it was only 12. Vargas also tallied 12 wins for the Diamondbacks last season which was his career high. All five starters in Milwaukee's rotation have 15-win potential. That's the upside. This is the reality. Sheets has never won more than 12 games. As I already mentioned, Capuano fell off in the second half of last season. Suppan has a record of just five games over .500 for his career. In my opinion, the upside outweighs the pessimism here and the Brewers have the makings of a great rotation.

Offensively, Rickie Weeks leads off for the Brewers. He hit over .300 within the Central Division last year and I expect this guy to steal over 30 bases out of that lead off spot. J.J. Hardy is a very weak hitter in the two hole. Bill Hall was a big surprise in 2006 while, Koskie and Jenkins had disappointing seasons. The guy I look to for a breakout season is Prince Fielder. He set a Brewer rookie record by slugging 28 homeruns last season. He is very young and will get better and better each year.

One of the Brewers biggest concerns has to be their defense. Hall makes the move from short to center field ala Robin Yount, but I don't foresee the same success. Get ready for Hall's power numbers to suffer at the plate with the extra pressure there is on outfielders to swing the biggest bats.

Last season was Milwaukee's big chance to take the division when just 84 wins would have won it, but injuries prevented them from doing so. It's going to take a few more wins than that to get it done in 2007 and I don't think Milwaukee has it in them. My best guess is that Milwaukee will be a solid team to back in 2007 from a bettor's perspective though. The perception is that they are still a bad team. The starting pitching staff is going to surprise you and we'll take advantage backing these boys, especially at home where they won their most games in 2006 since 1992.